Get a Visual Representation of Deflation in Action

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Money And Credit Index (MACI)

Our Money And Credit Index for each country takes the data from money supply and debt, both public and private, to create an index. We then track the annualized rate of change of that index to examine whether money and credit, as a whole, is inflating or deflating.

US Monetary Indicators


Bonds are examined by agencies and are given a rating ranging from AAA (the highest quality) to D (when a bond is in default). Examining the difference in yield between bonds of different credit ratings can be insightful. When the credit cycle is positive for the economy, the yield on lower quality rated bonds should narrow relative to those of higher quality. The opposite happens when the credit cycle is turning negative.

Corporate Yield

Consumer Prices

Each country has an index of consumer prices, made up from a basket of goods and services traded in the economy. The annual percentage change in the index is what most people think of as inflation when it is above zero, and deflation when it is below zero. Strictly speaking, this should be called PRICE inflation or deflation. The proper definition of inflation or deflation refers to the MONETARY side. That is, an expansion or contraction in the amount of money and credit in an economy.

Nevertheless, there is often a link between monetary and price deflation, so monitoring the annual percentage change in consumer prices is useful.


Emerging Markets