News

The Deflationary Trend: Consumers Slip into a Darker Mood

So far this year, Wall Street's forecasts have been relentlessly bullish.

One of the latest: "Dow 20,000 Could Be Just '4 Years Away'" -- CNBC, Jan. 28

Plus, after being little more than spectators during the almost four-year rally, Main Street investors have been climbing onto the stock market bandwagon.

That said, the "optimism" memo apparently did not reach consumers.

Consumers turned gloomy as night in January. ... The top-line confidence index fell to its lowest reading since November 2011. Households feel more downbeat about the current economic situation and the future. The Conference Board pointed to the increase in payroll taxes as the damper on consumer spirits.

Wall Street Journal, Jan. 29

You see, the December 2012 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noted that higher taxes are "a common bear market manifestation."

The issue also said:

As mood darkens and the scramble for everyone else’s nickels and dimes intensifies, the IRS will become meaner than ever. ...

The deeper the bear market, the more governments will grab. Congress passed the federal income tax in 1914, near the bottom of a bear market in which the DJIA lost 44% of its value over the prior two years. ... During the Supercycle-degree bear market of 1929-1949 (inflation adjusted), Congress skimmed as much as 39% of capital gains, while the top income tax rate hit a whopping 94%. At the end of the Grand Supercycle topping process, on the other hand, both of these top rates were at historically low levels (2009).... The emerging thirst for higher taxes is evidence of [what's to come].