German Government Surprised by Recession

Germany has entered a recession. The GDP of Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly slipped 0.3% in Q1 (Daily Mail, May 25):

[Economic] figures come as blow to German government which predicted economic uptick

Germany had doubled its economic growth forecast for 2023 just a few weeks ago from 0.2% to 0.4%.

This economic downturn was not a surprise to Elliott Wave International.

The August 2022 Global Market Perspective showed this chart and said:

A recession in Europe is all but inescapable at this point. … The European Commission remains firmly in denial, saying that the eurozone will escape recession this year, but companies in Germany, which is the Continent’s largest economy, are seeing “softer demand for their products amid a darker economic outlook.” (Bloomberg, 7/4/22) Germany’s GDP also stagnated in July. More importantly, the economy recorded a 0.5% drop in overseas sales while imports were up 2.7%, meaning that the country recorded its first trade deficit since 1991. While deficits themselves are not recessionary, the change in behavior is notable, and, in case you’re wondering, 1991 was indeed a recession year.