Job Seekers May Face Increasingly Tough Times
What a contrast!
It wasn’t so long ago that workers were quitting their jobs in droves with the belief that a “better” job could be easily obtained down the street.
Now, there’s this Oct. 12 headline from the Tribune News Service:
Survey: Experts see massive hiring slowdown and surging unemployment a year from now
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast has been ahead of this story. The July issue noted:
Bloomberg reported on June 21 that employers in various industries are “dialing back their once-breakneck hiring plans.” “There is a stealth slowdown,” says a recruiting consultant. “There is an erosion of power of the job candidate.” That was fast. Only three months ago, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discussed the “great resignation” in which a more “idealistic generation” of workers will “set about demanding a utopian world.” The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast countered that the belief in such demands was “just about perfect for a fifth wave of Supercycle degree.” According to a June 15 headline in MarketWatch, a transition “From Great Resignation to Forced Resignation” is already in place.
Relatedly, a month and a half later, the August Elliott Wave Theorist provided a historic look at the cost of labor. Here’s a chart and commentary:
The cost of labor relative to real (CPI-adjusted) GDP has risen by 6.7 times [from 1948 to 2020], as you can see in [the chart]. Thanks greatly to the bear market in commodities of 2008-2020, the ratio between real labor costs and commodity prices rose by the same multiple. … With labor having become nearly seven times more expensive relative to goods, one can understand why businesses have been driven to automate and why there are no more “full service” gas stations.